Intensity estimation of non-homogeneous Poisson processes from shifted trajectories

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating nonparametrically a mean pattern intensity λ from the observation of n independent and non-homogeneous Poisson processes N1,…,Nn on the interval [0,1]. This problem arises when data (counts) are collected independently from n individuals according to similar Poisson processes. We show that estimating this intensity is a deconvolution problem for which the density of the random shifts plays the role of the convolution operator. In an asymptotic setting where the number n of observed trajectories tends to infinity, we derive upper and lower bounds for the minimax quadratic risk over Besov balls. Non-linear thresholding in a Meyer wavelet basis is used to derive an adaptive estimator of the intensity. The proposed estimator is shown to achieve a near-minimax rate of convergence. This rate depends both on the smoothness of the intensity function and the density of the random shifts, which makes a connection between the classical deconvolution problem in nonparametric statistics and the estimation of a mean intensity from the observations of independent Poisson processes.