Defining and measuring risk and opportunity in BOCR framework for decision analysis

Abstract

Decision aid through analysis of benefit, opportunity, cost and risk (BOCR) offer the structural framework to get all necessary information to an effective decision making. It was investigated by researchers of differents fields (economics, engineering, management, ...) and many evaluation and recommendation methods have been published in the literature to help decision makers to make their choice. However, most of the existing methods do not focus on quantification and evaluation of uncertain parameters of decision problem representing risk and opportunity. To address these issues, we propose in this paper a new BOCR analysis framework including definition and a measure of risk and opportunity. The basic idea highlights the bipolarity nature of the attributes that characterize alternatives with regard to objectives. Indeed, we consider that alternatives are evaluated against several objectives by using many features of them known as attributes. Taking into account uncertainty of some components or relationships, this paper proposes explicit modeling of risk and opportunity in the BOCR framework. The evaluation and recommendation because of the bipolar nature are made using the Satisficing game theory.