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Multifidelity Orbit Uncertainty Propagation using Taylor Polynomials

Fossà, Alberto and Armellin, Roberto and Delande, Emmanuel and Losacco, Matteo and Sanfedino, Francesco Multifidelity Orbit Uncertainty Propagation using Taylor Polynomials. (2022) In: AIAA SCITECH 2022 Forum, 3 January 2022 - 7 January 2022 (United States).

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2022-0859

Abstract

A new multifidelity method is developed for nonlinear orbit uncertainty propagation. This approach guarantees improved computational efficiency and limited accuracy losses compared with fully high-fidelity counterparts. The initial uncertainty is modeled as a weighted sum of Gaussian distributions whose number is adapted online to satisfy the required accuracy. As needed, univariate splitting libraries are used to split the mixture components along the direction of maximum nonlinearity. Differential Algebraic techniques are used to propagate these Gaussian kernels and compute a measure of nonlinearity required for the split decision and direction identification. Taylor expansions of the flow of the dynamics are computed using a low-fidelity dynamical model to maximize computational efficiency and corrected with selected high-fidelity samples to minimize accuracy losses. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated for different dynamical regimes combining SGP4 theory and numerical propagation as low- and high-fidelity models respectively.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Audience (conference):International conference proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:French research institutions > Centre National d'Études Spatiales - CNES (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut Supérieur de l'Aéronautique et de l'Espace - ISAE-SUPAERO (FRANCE)
Other partners > University of Auckland - UOA (NEW ZEALAND)
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Deposited On:18 Jan 2022 15:47

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