Can uncertainty propagation solve the mysterious case of snoopy ?

Abstract

In 2015, a mysterious space debris entered the Earth’s atmosphere under the name WT1190F. Even though it has been observed before, its origin remains an enigma. Two major candidates are considered: Snoopy, the lost lunar module of mission Apollo 10, launched in 1969, and the trans-lunar injection stage of Lunar Prospector, launched in 1998. This study case raises the following question: How is it possible to compare 2 objects with their positions and uncertainties measured at different dates? This article will propose a probabilistic correlation criterion, able to compare the behaviour of two sets with one another. This criterion will then be evaluated on the case of WT1190F to determine which candidate is more likely to be the space debris.