Model-based approaches for technology planning and roadmapping: Technology forecasting and game-theoretic modeling

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel model-based approach to technology planning and roadmapping, consisting of two complementary steps: technology forecasting and game-theoretic planning. The inherent uncertainty of target technology performances, timelines and risks impact the roadmapping process. Reducing this uncertainty is a major challenge and allows elaborating different options and scenarios. A formal methodology is proposed for quantitative forecasting in a multi-dimensional space (different performance metrics and time) based on past technology development trend information. The method adopts concepts and approaches from econometrics and is formulated as a convex optimization problem with different constraints on the frontier’s shape. It provides useful product line assessment benchmarks and helps to set reasonable goals for future technology developments. Game-theoretic planning allows addressing the strategic decisions to take, considering the technology land-scape, markets, and competition. The strategic decisions affect in turn other companies as well, which is the basis for the application of game theory, in the form of best-response functions to determine the subsequent reactions and movements of rivals in a technological landscape. The result is a simulation of a sequential game in tech-nology space, allowing evaluating possible technological development pathways and determining optimal models on the Pareto frontiers, potential targets for technology roadmapping.