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Model-based approaches for technology planning and roadmapping: Technology forecasting and game-theoretic modeling

Yuskevich, Ilya and Smirnova, Ksenia and Vingerhoeds, Rob A. and Golkar, Alessandro Model-based approaches for technology planning and roadmapping: Technology forecasting and game-theoretic modeling. (2021) Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 168. 120761. ISSN 0040-1625

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120761

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel model-based approach to technology planning and roadmapping, consisting of two complementary steps: technology forecasting and game-theoretic planning. The inherent uncertainty of target technology performances, timelines and risks impact the roadmapping process. Reducing this uncertainty is a major challenge and allows elaborating different options and scenarios. A formal methodology is proposed for quantitative forecasting in a multi-dimensional space (different performance metrics and time) based on past technology development trend information. The method adopts concepts and approaches from econometrics and is formulated as a convex optimization problem with different constraints on the frontier’s shape. It provides useful product line assessment benchmarks and helps to set reasonable goals for future technology developments. Game-theoretic planning allows addressing the strategic decisions to take, considering the technology land-scape, markets, and competition. The strategic decisions affect in turn other companies as well, which is the basis for the application of game theory, in the form of best-response functions to determine the subsequent reactions and movements of rivals in a technological landscape. The result is a simulation of a sequential game in tech-nology space, allowing evaluating possible technological development pathways and determining optimal models on the Pareto frontiers, potential targets for technology roadmapping.

Item Type:Article
Audience (journal):International peer-reviewed journal
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:Université de Toulouse > Institut Supérieur de l'Aéronautique et de l'Espace - ISAE-SUPAERO (FRANCE)
Other partners > Université Paris-Saclay (FRANCE)
Other partners > CentraleSupélec (FRANCE)
Other partners > IRT SystemX (FRANCE)
Other partners > Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology - Skoltech (RUSSIA)
Laboratory name:
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Deposited On:10 Sep 2021 12:16

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