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Towards system-level prognostics : Modeling, uncertainty propagation and system remaining useful life prediction

Tamssaouet, Ferhat. Towards system-level prognostics : Modeling, uncertainty propagation and system remaining useful life prediction. PhD, Génie Industriel, Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse, 2020

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Abstract

Prognostics is the process of predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of components, subsystems, or systems. However, until now, the prognostics has often been approached from a component view without considering interactions between components and effects of the environment, leading to a misprediction of the complex systems failure time. In this work, a prognostics approach to system-level is proposed. This approach is based on a new modeling framework: the inoperability input-output model (IIM), which allows tackling the issue related to the interactions between components and the mission profile effects and can be applied for heterogeneous systems. Then, a new methodology for online joint system RUL (SRUL) prediction and model parameter estimation is developed based on particle filtering (PF) and gradient descent (GD). In detail, the state of health of system components is estimated and predicted in a probabilistic manner using PF. In the case of consecutive discrepancy between the prior and posterior estimates of the system health state, the proposed estimation method is used to correct and to adapt the IIM parameters. Finally, the developed methodology is verified on a realistic industrial system: The Tennessee Eastman Process. The obtained results highlighted its effectiveness in predicting the SRUL in reasonable computing time.

Item Type:PhD Thesis
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP (FRANCE)
Laboratory name:
Research Director:
Medjaher, Kamal and Nguyen, Thi Phuong Khanh
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Deposited On:24 Nov 2020 13:25

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