Decision support system with uncertain data: Bayesian networks approach

Abstract

This paper is concerned with decision support system (DSS) development for aid in decision-making with uncertain data. The decision-making problem is formulated in the framework of state-of-the-world decision-making model and the main purpose of the decision support system that will be developed is to aid to estimate the most likely state of the world according to some external or environmental events that are known to have an influence on it. The mathematical tool used to tackle this problem is bayesian networks (BN). The state of the world is considered to be a random variable depending on some random environmental events organized in probabilistic causal network known as bayesian network. Any evidence on environmental events is then propagated by the bayesian network to estimate the state of the world with some degree of confidence that is used to make decision.