Tahiri, Ayoub and Ladevèze, David and Chiron, Pascale
and Archimède, Bernard
Improving the characterization of initial conditions for streamflow prediction using a precipitation reconstruction algorithm.
(2018)
In: 1st IFAC Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modelling for Environmental Systems, (IAMES 2018), 10 May 2018 - 11 May 2018 (Brescia, Italy).
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(Document in English)
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.06.193
Abstract
Hydrologic forecasts derive their skill from knowledge of initial conditions at the forecast date, climate forecast, model structure and parameters. Uncertainty on the initial conditions has as much influence as uncertainty on the weather forecasts on the hydrologic forecasts for some watersheds. Initial conditions depend on several parameters: evapotranspiration, soil composition and mainly former rain events which are measured by rain gauges or radars. Precipitation measures often show uncertainties or even data gaps, and thus, the evolution of the soil states is unknown. The initial conditions can only be determined by following up the evolution of the variable states. The measured discharge runoff is the only available reliable data and thus, that information can be used to determine the variable states, by the inversion of the rainfall-runoff model. This study proposes a post-processing method that adjust the initial conditions using measured discharge runoff at the outlet of a watershed. The heuristic is applied on the Echez watershed, and the effectiveness of the method is illustrated thanks to a comparison of the results obtained with the measured observation during an analysis period falling out after the forecast date.
Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
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Additional Information: | Tahiri A., Ladevèze D., Chiron P, Archimède B. Improving the characterization of initial conditions for streamflow prediction using a precipitation reconstruction algorithm. 1st IFAC Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modelling for Environmental Systems, (IAMES 2018), may 10-11, 2018, Brescia – Italie, Edited by Claudio Carnevale, Giorgio Guariso, Ronald van Nooijen, Marialuisa Volta, IFAC - Papers On Line, Volume 51, Issue 5, pages 19-24, ISSN: 2405-8963, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.06.193 |
HAL Id: | hal-02053204 |
Audience (conference): | International conference proceedings |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | |
Institution: | Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP (FRANCE) Other partners > Compagnie d'aménagement des coteaux de Gascogne - CACG (FRANCE) |
Laboratory name: | |
Statistics: | download |
Deposited On: | 17 Jan 2019 14:34 |
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