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Improving the characterization of initial conditions for streamflow prediction using a precipitation reconstruction algorithm

Tahiri, Ayoub and Ladevèze, David and Chiron, Pascale and Archimède, Bernard Improving the characterization of initial conditions for streamflow prediction using a precipitation reconstruction algorithm. (2018) In: 1st IFAC Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modelling for Environmental Systems, (IAMES 2018), 10 May 2018 - 11 May 2018 (Brescia, Italy).

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.06.193

Abstract

Hydrologic forecasts derive their skill from knowledge of initial conditions at the forecast date, climate forecast, model structure and parameters. Uncertainty on the initial conditions has as much influence as uncertainty on the weather forecasts on the hydrologic forecasts for some watersheds. Initial conditions depend on several parameters: evapotranspiration, soil composition and mainly former rain events which are measured by rain gauges or radars. Precipitation measures often show uncertainties or even data gaps, and thus, the evolution of the soil states is unknown. The initial conditions can only be determined by following up the evolution of the variable states. The measured discharge runoff is the only available reliable data and thus, that information can be used to determine the variable states, by the inversion of the rainfall-runoff model. This study proposes a post-processing method that adjust the initial conditions using measured discharge runoff at the outlet of a watershed. The heuristic is applied on the Echez watershed, and the effectiveness of the method is illustrated thanks to a comparison of the results obtained with the measured observation during an analysis period falling out after the forecast date.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:Tahiri A., Ladevèze D., Chiron P, Archimède B. Improving the characterization of initial conditions for streamflow prediction using a precipitation reconstruction algorithm. 1st IFAC Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modelling for Environmental Systems, (IAMES 2018), may 10-11, 2018, Brescia – Italie, Edited by Claudio Carnevale, Giorgio Guariso, Ronald van Nooijen, Marialuisa Volta, IFAC - Papers On Line, Volume 51, Issue 5, pages 19-24, ISSN: 2405-8963, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.06.193
HAL Id:hal-02053204
Audience (conference):International conference proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
Other partners > Compagnie d'aménagement des coteaux de Gascogne - CACG (FRANCE)
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Deposited By: Pascale Lalot
Deposited On:17 Jan 2019 14:34

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