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State space collapse for critical multistage epidemics

Simatos, Florian State space collapse for critical multistage epidemics. (2015) Advances in Applied Probability, 47 (3). 715-740. ISSN 0001-8678

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1239/aap/1444308879

Abstract

We study a multistage epidemic model which generalizes the SIR model and where infected individuals go through K ≥ 1 stages of the epidemic before being re- moved. An infected individual in stage k ∈ {1, . . . , K } may infect a susceptible individual, who directly goes to stage k of the epidemic; or it may go to the next stage k+1 of the epidemic. For this model, we identify the critical regime in which we establish diffusion approximations. Surprisingly, the limiting diffusion exhibits an unusual form of state space collapse which we analyze in detail.

Item Type:Article
HAL Id:hal-01888122
Audience (journal):International peer-reviewed journal
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Institution:Other partners > Eindhoven University of Technology - TU/e (NETHERLANDS)
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Deposited On:04 Oct 2018 15:24

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