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Two-dimensional Pareto frontier forecasting for technology planning and roadmapping

Yuskevich, Ilya and Vingerhoeds, Rob A. and Golkar, Alessandro Two-dimensional Pareto frontier forecasting for technology planning and roadmapping. (2018) In: 2018 Systems Conferences (Syscon), 24 April 2018 - 26 April 2018 (Vancouvre, Canada).

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Technology evolution forecasting based on historical data processing is a useful tool for quantitative analysis in technology planning and roadmapping. While previous efforts focused mainly on one-dimensional forecasting, real technical systems require the evaluation of multiple and conflicting figures of merit at the same time, such as cost and performance. This paper presents a methodology for technology forecasting based on Pareto (efficient) frontier estimation algorithms and multiple regressions in presence of at least two conflicting figures of merits. A tool was developed on the basis of the approach presented in this paper. The methodology is illustrated with a case study from the automotive industry. The paper also shows the validation of the methodology and the estimation of the forecast accuracy adopting a backward testing procedure.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:Thanks to the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers). “© 2018 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. ISBN 978-1-5386-3664-0/18
HAL Id:hal-01804001
Audience (conference):International conference proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:Université de Toulouse > Institut Supérieur de l'Aéronautique et de l'Espace - ISAE-SUPAERO (FRANCE)
Other partners > Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology - Skoltech (RUSSIA)
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Deposited On:31 May 2018 09:38

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