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An approach to risk quantification based on pseudo-random failure rates

González-Prida, Vicente and Shambhu, Jayakumar and Guillen, Antonio Jesus and Adams, Joel and Pérès, François and Kobbacy, Khairy An approach to risk quantification based on pseudo-random failure rates. (2016) IFAC-PapersOnLine, 49 (28). 179-184. ISSN 2405-8963

(Document in English)

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2016.11.031


The risk quantification is one of the most critical areas in asset management (AM). The relevant information from the traditional models can be shown in risk matrices that represent a static picture of the risk levels and are according to its frequency and its impact (consequences). These models are used in a wide spectrum of knowledge domains. In this paper, we describe a quantitative model using the reliability and failure probability (as frequency in our risk model), and the preventive and corrective costs (as consequences in our risk model). The challenge here will be the treatment of reliability based on failure rate values with different e random distributions (normal, triangular etc.) according to the available data. These possible values will enable the simulation of the behavior of the system in terms of reliability and, consequently, to use this information for making a risk based analysis. The traditional risk-cost-benefit models applied to maintenance usually provides an optimum for the time to apply a preventive task. But in this case, a time window is obtained showing minimum and maximum thresholds for the best time to apply the preventive maintenance task, together with other interesting statistics useful for the improvement of complex industrial asset management.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:Thanks to Elsevier editor. The definitive version is available at : https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ifac-papersonline/
HAL Id:hal-01635619
Audience (journal):International peer-reviewed journal
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP (FRANCE)
Other partners > Taibah University - TaibahU (SAUDI ARABIA)
Other partners > University of Cambridge (UNITED KINGDOM)
Other partners > Universidad de Sevilla (SPAIN)
Other partners > University of Stavanger - UIS (NORWAY)
Laboratory name:
Deposited On:23 May 2017 12:57

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