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Predicting Aircraft Descent Length with Machine Learning

Alligier, Richard and Gianazza, David and Durand, Nicolas Predicting Aircraft Descent Length with Machine Learning. (2016) In: 7th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation (ICRAT 2016), 20 June 2016 - 24 June 2016 (Philadelphia, United States).

(Document in English)

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Predicting aircraft trajectories is a key element in the detection and resolution of air traffic conflicts. In this paper, we focus on the ground-based prediction of final descents toward the destination airport. Several Machine Learning methods – ridge regression, neural networks, and gradient-boosting machine – are applied to the prediction of descents toward Toulouse airport (France), and compared with a baseline method relying on the Eurocontrol Base of Aircraft Data (BADA). Using a dataset of 15,802 Mode-S radar trajectories of 11 different aircraft types, we build models which predict the total descent length from the cruise altitude to a given final altitude. Our results show that the Machine Learning methods improve the root mean square error on the predicted descent length of at least 20 % for the ridge regression, and up to 24 % for the gradient-boosting machine, when compared with the baseline BADA method.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:Thanks to ICART. The definitive version is available at http://www.icrat.org/icrat/ The original PDF is available at: http://www.icrat.org/icrat/seminarContent/2016/papers/7/ICRAT_2016_paper_7.pdf
Audience (conference):International conference proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile - ENAC (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT3 (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT2J (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT1 (FRANCE)
Laboratory name:
Deposited On:06 Jan 2017 08:10

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