Modelling of ill-known requirements and integration in production planning

Abstract

Making decisions on the base of uncertain forecasts is one of the key challenges for efficient Supply Chain Management. This article suggests the use of the theory of possibility for building a procurement plan on the base of ill-known requirements. These requirements, expressed in quantities by date, may come from various sources: forecasts or orders for instance. The possible types of imperfection pervading requirement are analysed and a unified representation model is suggested. A method is then described for calculating a plausible demand by period without loss of information; it is illustrated on an example in the last section.