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New product development with discrete event simulation : Application to portfolio management for the pharmaceutical industry

Pérez-Escobedo, José Luis and Azzaro-Pantel, Catherine and Pibouleau, Luc New product development with discrete event simulation : Application to portfolio management for the pharmaceutical industry. (2011) Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, vol. 50 (n° 18). pp. 10615-10629. ISSN 0888-5885

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/ie200406s

Abstract

New product development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: Select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects to satisfy several criteria (e.g., economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to be developed, together with the order in which they enter the pipeline and the corresponding resource allocation. In this context, this work presents the development and implementation of a discrete event simulator for drug portfolio management based on object-oriented techniques and used as a tool for evaluating each drug or sequence of drugs. Evaluation methods based on bubble charts are used for selecting the best drugs according to the considered evaluation criteria. Imprecision modeling has been tackled in two ways: a classical probability approach and an interval-based one. Both approaches are illustrated by a numerical example, which shows that the tendencies obtained by the interval-based approach can be difficult to interpret for the decision maker, because of the growing uncertainty along the pipeline. In addition, the risk, which is taken into account through failure probability for some stages and which is strongly involved in the NPD process, must be an integral part of the modeling approach. The repetitive use of simulation with representative sampling turns out to be the most efficient strategy. © 2011 American Chemical Society.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:This document is the unedited author's version of a Submitted Work that was subsequently accepted for publication in "Industrial & Engineering Chemestry Research", copyright © American Chemical Society after peer review. To access the final edited and published work see at this link : http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/ie200406s
Audience (journal):International peer-reviewed journal
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS
Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT
Université de Toulouse > Université Paul Sabatier-Toulouse III - UPS
Laboratory name:
Laboratoire de Génie Chimique - LGC (Toulouse, France) - Procédés Systèmes Industriels (PSI) - Conception Optimisation Ordonnancement des Procédés (COOP)
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Deposited By: Vincent GERBAUD

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