Analysis of new pharmaceutical product mix selection with discrete-event simulation

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the presentation of a discrete-event (DES) simulation model to represent the drug development process and to help decision-making. The presentation is mainly focused on the development of the simulator initially developed for scheduling, planning and design purposes. A typical example involving 6 drugs is used as a test bench to illustrate the proposed methodology. Monte Carlo trials are used for each portfolio of drugs. Each trial can be viewed as a simulated path of the potential product along the probabilistic network. Different scenarios are analyzed, reflecting the pessimist or optimistic viewpoint of the decision’s maker.