OATAO - Open Archive Toulouse Archive Ouverte Open Access Week

Predicting Aircraft Descent Length with Machine Learning

Alligier, Richard and Gianazza, David and Durand, Nicolas Predicting Aircraft Descent Length with Machine Learning. (2016) In: 7th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation (ICRAT 2016), 20 June 2016 - 24 June 2016 (Philadelphia, United States).

[img]
Preview
(Document in English)

PDF (Author's version) - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
1MB

Abstract

Predicting aircraft trajectories is a key element in the detection and resolution of air traffic conflicts. In this paper, we focus on the ground-based prediction of final descents toward the destination airport. Several Machine Learning methods – ridge regression, neural networks, and gradient-boosting machine – are applied to the prediction of descents toward Toulouse airport (France), and compared with a baseline method relying on the Eurocontrol Base of Aircraft Data (BADA). Using a dataset of 15,802 Mode-S radar trajectories of 11 different aircraft types, we build models which predict the total descent length from the cruise altitude to a given final altitude. Our results show that the Machine Learning methods improve the root mean square error on the predicted descent length of at least 20 % for the ridge regression, and up to 24 % for the gradient-boosting machine, when compared with the baseline BADA method.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:Thanks to ICART. The definitive version is available at http://www.icrat.org/icrat/ The original PDF is available at: http://www.icrat.org/icrat/seminarContent/2016/papers/7/ICRAT_2016_paper_7.pdf
Audience (conference):International conference proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile - ENAC (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UPS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT2J (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT1 (FRANCE)
Laboratory name:
Statistics:download
Deposited By: IRIT IRIT
Deposited On:06 Jan 2017 08:10

Repository Staff Only: item control page