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High Confidence Intervals Applied to Aircraft Altitude Prediction

Ghasemi Hamed, Mohammad and Alligier, Richard and Gianazza, David High Confidence Intervals Applied to Aircraft Altitude Prediction. (2016) IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 17 (9). 2515-2527. ISSN 1524-9050

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2016.2519266

Abstract

This paper describes the application of high-confidence-interval prediction methods to the aircraft trajectory prediction problem, more specifically to the altitude prediction during climb. We are interested in methods for finding two-sided intervals that contain, with a specified confidence, at least a desired proportion of the conditional distribution of the response variable. This paper introduces two-sided Bonferroni-quantile confidence intervals, which is a new method for obtaining high-confidence two-sided intervals in quantile regression. This paper also uses the Bonferroni inequality to propose a new method for obtaining tolerance intervals in least squares regression. The latter has the advantages of being reliable, fast, and easy to calculate. We compare physical point-mass models to the introduced models on an air traffic management data set composed of traffic at major French airports. Experimental results show that the proposed interval prediction models perform significantly better than the conventional point-mass model currently used in most trajectory predictors. When comparing with a recent state-of-the-art point-mass model with adaptive mass estimation, the proposed methods give altitude intervals that are slightly wider but more reliable.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:Thanks to IEEE editor. The definitive version is available at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org This papers appears volume 17 of IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems ISSN: 1524-9050 ESSN: 1558-0016 The original PDF of the article can be found at: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7442143/ Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Audience (journal):International peer-reviewed journal
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile - ENAC (FRANCE)
Other partners > Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Techniques Avancées - ENSTA (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UPS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT2J (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT1 (FRANCE)
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Deposited By: IRIT IRIT
Deposited On:09 Jan 2017 13:45

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