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Combined analysis of unique and repetitive events in quantitative risk assessment.

Flage, Roger and Dubois, Didier and Aven, Terje Combined analysis of unique and repetitive events in quantitative risk assessment. (2016) International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 70. 68-78. ISSN 0888-613X

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2015.12.008

Abstract

For risk assessment to be a relevant tool in the study of any type of system or activity, it needs to be based on a framework that allows for jointly analyzing both unique and repetitive events. Separately, unique events may be handled by predictive probability assignments on the events, and repetitive events with unknown/uncertain frequencies are typically handled by the probability of frequency (or Bayesian) approach. Regardless of the nature of the events involved, there may be a problem with imprecision in the probability assignments. Several uncertainty representations with the interpretation of lower and upper probability have been developed for reflecting such imprecision. In particular, several methods exist for jointly propagating precise and imprecise probabilistic input in the probability of frequency setting. In the present position paper we outline a framework for the combined analysis of unique and repetitive events in quantitative risk assessment using both precise and imprecise probability. In particular, we extend an existing method for jointly propagating probabilistic and possibilistic input by relaxing the assumption that all events involved have frequentist probabilities; instead we assume that frequentist probabilities may be introduced for some but not all events involved, i.e. some events are assumed to be unique and require predictive – possibly imprecise – probabilistic assignments, i.e. subjective probability assignments on the unique events without introducing underlying frequentist probabilities for these. A numerical example related to environmental risk assessment of the drilling of an oil well is included to illustrate the application of the resulting method.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:Thanks to SCITEPRESS (Science and Technology Publications) editor. The definitive version is available at http://www.scitepress.org The original PDF is available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0888613X15001863
HAL Id:hal-01484951
Audience (journal):International peer-reviewed journal
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UPS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT2J (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT1 (FRANCE)
Other partners > University of Stavanger - UIS (NORWAY)
Laboratory name:
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Deposited By: IRIT IRIT
Deposited On:08 Feb 2017 14:33

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