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The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models: A Multi-Scale Approach

Banos, Arnaud and Corson, Nathalie and Gaudou, Benoit and Laperrière, Vincent and Rey Coyrehourcq, Sébastien The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models: A Multi-Scale Approach. (2015) Systems, 3 (4). 309-329. ISSN 2079-8954

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/systems3040309

Abstract

This work addresses the spread of a disease within an urban system, defined as a network of interconnected cities. The first step consists of comparing two different approaches: a macroscopic one, based on a system of coupled Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) systems exploiting populations on nodes and flows on edges (so-called metapopulational model), and a hybrid one, coupling ODE SIR systems on nodes and agents traveling on edges. Under homogeneous conditions (mean field approximation), this comparison leads to similar results on the outputs on which we focus (the maximum intensity of the epidemic, its duration and the time of the epidemic peak). However, when it comes to setting up epidemic control strategies, results rapidly diverge between the two approaches, and it appears that the full macroscopic model is not completely adapted to these questions. In this paper, we focus on some control strategies, which are quarantine, avoidance and risk culture, to explore the differences, advantages and disadvantages of the two models and discuss the importance of being hybrid when modeling and simulating epidemic spread at the level of a whole urban system.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:Thanks to MDPI Publishing. The original PDF is available at: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/3/4/309
Audience (journal):International peer-reviewed journal
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:Other partners > Aix-Marseille Université - AMU (FRANCE)
French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
Other partners > Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (FRANCE)
Other partners > Université de Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (FRANCE)
Other partners > Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (FRANCE)
Other partners > Université du Havre - ULH (FRANCE)
Other partners > Université de Rouen - UR (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UPS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT2J (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT1 (FRANCE)
Other partners > Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse (FRANCE)
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Deposited By: IRIT IRIT
Deposited On:11 May 2017 11:12

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