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Deciding under ignorance: in search of meaningful extensions of the Hurwicz criterion to decision trees

Dubois, Didier and Fargier, Hélène and Guillaume, Romain and Thierry, Caroline Deciding under ignorance: in search of meaningful extensions of the Hurwicz criterion to decision trees. (2014) In: International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics - SMPS 2014, 22 September 2014 - 24 September 2014 (Warsaw, Poland).

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10765-3_1

Abstract

The major paradigm for sequential decision under uncertainty is expected utility. This approach has many good features that qualify it for posing and solving decision problems, especially dynamic consistency and computational efficiency via dynamic programming. However, when uncertainty is due to sheer lack of information, and expected utility is no longer a realistic criterion, the approach collapses because dynamic consistency becomes counterintuitive and the global non-expected utility criteria are no longer amenable to dynamic programming. In this paper we argue against Resolute Choice strategies, following the path opened by Jaffray, and suggest that the dynamic programming methodology may lead to more intuitive solutions respecting the Consequentialism axiom, while a global evaluation of strategies relying on lottery reduction is questionable.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:Thanks to Springer editor. The definitive version is available at http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-319-10765-3_1
Audience (conference):National conference proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UPS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT2J (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT1 (FRANCE)
Laboratory name:
Statistics:download
Deposited By: IRIT IRIT
Deposited On:01 Apr 2015 12:25

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