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Estimating Probability of Failure of a Complex System Based on Inexact Information about Subsystems and Components, with Potential Applications to Aircraft Maintenance

Kreinovich, Vladik and Jacob, Christelle and Dubois, Didier and Cardoso, Janette and Ceberio, Martine and Batyrshin, Ildar Estimating Probability of Failure of a Complex System Based on Inexact Information about Subsystems and Components, with Potential Applications to Aircraft Maintenance. (2011) In: 10th Mexican Int. Conf. on Artificial Intelligence (MICAI), 26 November 2011 - 4 December 2011 (Puebla, Mexico).

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25330-0_7

Abstract

In many real-life applications (e.g., in aircraft maintenance), we need to estimate the probability of failure of a complex system (such as an aircraft as a whole or one of its subsystems). Complex systems are usually built with redundancy allowing them to withstand the failure of a small number of components. In this paper, we assume that we know the structure of the system, and, as a result, for each possible set of failed components, we can tell whether this set will lead to a system failure. For each component A, we know the probability P(A) of its failure with some uncertainty: e.g., we know the lower and upper bounds P(A) and P(A) for this probability. Usually, it is assumed that failures of different components are independent events. Our objective is to use all this information to estimate the probability of failure of the entire the complex system. In this paper, we describe several methods for solving this problem, including a new efficient method for such estimation based on Cauchy deviates.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:Book Title : Advances in Soft Computing 10th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, MICAI 2011, Puebla, Mexico, November 26 - December 4, 2011, Proceedings, Part II Print ISBN : 978-3-642-25329-4 Series Title : Lecture Notes in Computer Science Series Volume : 7095 Publisher : Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Audience (conference):International conference proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Institution:French research institutions > Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse - INPT (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Institut Supérieur de l'Aéronautique et de l'Espace - ISAE-SUPAERO (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UPS (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT2J (FRANCE)
Université de Toulouse > Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT1 (FRANCE)
Other partners > Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo - IMP (MEXICO)
Other partners > University of Texas at El Paso - UTEP (USA)
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Deposited By: janette cardoso
Deposited On:17 Apr 2014 12:40

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